FERRIER INTERNATIONAL

Today’s WORD Philippians 1: 27-28

Ferrier International — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 06:12:00 +0000

Blessings friends, welcome to this new day, let us start with today’s WORD . Be encouraged to share this WORD with all and build “Character “.

“Only let your conduct be worthy of the gospel of Christ, so that whether I come and see you or am absent, I may hear of your affairs, that you stand fast in one spirit, with one mind striving together for the faith of the gospel, and not in any way terrified by your adversaries, which is to them a proof of perdition, but to you of salvation, and that from God.” Philippians 1: 27-28

Friends may you receive this WORD with encouragement, and PERSEVERE.

Friends it is very easy to get distracted and led astray, so be mindful of this and remain focused on your PURPOSE. Sometimes you will go through a season of pruning and during that time you will need to be still, and persevere as GOD will be preparing you for greater works.

“Be still, and know that I am God; I will be exalted among the nations, I will be exalted in the earth!” Psalm 46:10

YES, friend “PERSERVERE” and let GOD guide you and allow HIS blessing flow into your life.

Friends be encouraged to have FAITH in the LORD our GOD and live by HIS WORD, with all your heart, mind, and spirit.

“PERSERVERE”

“There is one body and one Spirit, just as you were called in one hope of your calling; one Lord, one faith, one baptism; one God and Father of all, who is above all, and through all, and in you all.” Ephesians 4: 4-6

“Thank You Lord for this day, and for all you have done for us. Lord forgive us our sins, and help us with forgiveness of others. Lord please heal our bodies, minds and hearts, so that we are free and healthy in body, mind and Spirit. Lord may you guide, protect and provide for our family needs. In Jesus name we pray. Amen”

Friends bless you and thank you for all your support and prayers, may today’s WORD inspire you more to encourage others to join us sharing the Gospel with all during 2012, as GOD uses you more each day, for HIS glory and purpose as HIS plans unfold moving forward in 2012.

Grace to you and have a blessed day.

COOL with us.

Gavin Bruce Ferrier

COOL Ministries International – CMI

Today’s WORD Romans 8: 18

Ferrier International — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 05:08:00 +0000

Blessings friends, welcome to this new day, let us start with today’s WORD . Be encouraged to share this WORD with all and build “Character “.

“For I consider that the sufferings of this present time are not worthy to be compared with the glory which shall be revealed in us.” Romans 8: 18

Friends may you receive this WORD with encouragement, and do not let your circumstances suppress the GLORY of GOD in you life.

Friends it is very easy to slip into depression and self pity, but be encouraged to rather focus on the promise of eternity with GOD sharing HIS GLORY, and not on your circumstances. We tend to let our circumstances rule us, and this cancer grows rapidly if not controlled. I too have experienced circumstantial cancer, but once I focused on what GOD has called me to do, the blessings of GOD flowed in and my circumstances changed. Friends you can rise above your circumstances by just doing more for GOD as we are called to serve HIM, and you will see how easy it is to overcome your circumstances.

YES, friend “YOU CAN OVERCOME” and let GOD guide you and allow HIS blessing flow into your life.

Friends be encouraged to have FAITH in the LORD our GOD and live by HIS WORD, with all your heart, mind, and spirit.

“YOU CAN OVERCOME”

Grace to you and have a blessed day.

COOL with us.

Gavin Bruce Ferrier

COOL Ministries International – CMI

Today’s WORD 1 Timothy 1: 15

Ferrier International — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 03:55:00 +0000

Blessings friends, welcome to this new day, let us start with today’s WORD . Be encouraged to share this WORD with all and build “Character “.

“This is a faithful saying and worthy of all acceptance, that Christ Jesus came into the world to save sinners, of whom I am chief.” I Timothy 1: 15

Friends may you receive this WORD with encouragement, that JESUS CHRIST came into the world to SAVE sinners.

Friends I am also a sinner SAVED by the GRACE of JESUS CHRIST, and have now taken up my CALLING to share the GOSPEL with all. Friends we who have accepted JESUS CHRIST as our LORD and SAVIOUR, must always be ready to seize every opportunity to share the GOSPEL, so others are lead to JESUS CHRIST and SAVED as JESUS intended.

“And He said to them, “Go into all the world and preach the gospel to every creature.” Mark 16: 15

Friends we are ALL CALLED to go out, and share the GOSPEL with all. Be encouraged to share the GOSPEL with others, so they too can be SAVED by the GRACE of our LORD and saviour JESUS CHRIST.

During each day you will provided opportunities to share the GOSPEL, and lead others to JESUS CHRIST, so they too can be SAVED. Friends be encouraged to accept this “CALLING” to serve GOD.

YES, friend “YOU CAN” and let GOD guide you.

Friends be encouraged to have FAITH in the LORD our GOD and live by HIS WORD, with all your heart, mind, and spirit.

“SAVED”

Grace to you and have a blessed day.

COOL with us.

Gavin Bruce Ferrier

COOL Ministries International – CMI

Today’s WORD Galatians 6: 7-10

Ferrier International — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 05:06:00 +0000

Blessings friends, welcome to this new day, let us start with today’s WORD . Be encouraged to share this WORD with all and build “Character “.

“Do not be deceived, God is not mocked; for whatever a man sows, that he will also reap. For he who sows to his flesh will of the flesh reap corruption, but he who sows to the Spirit will of the Spirit reap everlasting life. And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart. Therefore, as we have opportunity, let us do good to all, especially to those who are of the household of faith.” Galatians 6: 7-10

Friends may you receive this WORD with encouragement, and use the opportunity, to do good.

Friends be ready to seize every opportunity to do good, and share the gospel with others. During each day GOD will provide you many opportunities to share HIS glory and purpose with others. Friends be awake, and do not miss these special times, even in your daily work opportunities will arise. Sadly many an opportunity is lost, and once lost the opportunity passes, and as we miss these opportunities we will start feel alone and that GOD is not talking to you, friend arise and always be alert, and you will always be available to the opportunities offered by GOD to serve HIM.

Friends may this “OPPORTUNITY” to serve GOD not be missed.

Friends be encouraged to have FAITH in the LORD our GOD and live by HIS WORD, with all your heart, mind, and spirit.

“OPPORTUNITY”

Grace to you and have a blessed day.

COOL with us.

Gavin Bruce Ferrier

COOL Ministries International – CMI

Today’s WORD 2 Corinthians 7: 2

Ferrier International — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 05:49:00 +0000

Blessings friends, welcome to this new day, let us start with today’s WORD . Be encouraged to share this WORD with all and build “Character “.

“Open your hearts to us. We have wronged no one, we have corrupted no one, we have cheated no one.” 2 Corinthians 7: 2

Friends may you receive this WORD with encouragement, and be able to declare this scripture.

Sadly we live in a WORLD where corruption and dishonesty is a everyday occurrence from rulers to servants, we are all exposed to it. Friends we need to change and not just accept this, but first of all we need to start with ourselves. Reading this scripture has opened my heart, and I too need to examine myself and change.

“Open your hearts” Friends this is a call to evaluate yourself.

“I have wronged no one” Is this true? WOW! this cuts deep, but be encouraged today to clear your conscience and heart and be able to state “I have wronged no one” This will require repentance and forgiveness to take place, so that you are set free of guilt. Friends we can be able to declare “I have wronged no one” from this day.

Friends if this WORD has stirred your spirit, and your conscience has flashed pictures of your past wrongs before you, please join me this day repent, and ask for forgiveness, that we are set free to declare “We have wronged no one, we have corrupted no one, we have cheated no one.”

If you would like to share this prayer with me let us pray. “Lord help us/me this day, overcome the guilt for what we/I have done. Lord we/I have wronged/corrupted/cheated others and today ask for your forgiveness and theirs that we/I are/am free of this guilt. Lord clear our/my conscience of our/my past wrongs, and heal our/my hearts/heart so that from this day forward we/I are/am FREE to declare “I have wronged no one, I have corrupted no one, I have cheated no one.” In Jesus name we pray. Amen”

Friends may this “FREEDOM” remain that we can always declare “We have wronged no one, we have corrupted no one, we have cheated no one.”

YES, friend “YOU CAN” and let GOD will guide you.

Friends be encouraged to have FAITH in the LORD our GOD and live by HIS WORD, with all your heart, mind, and spirit.

“YOU CAN”

Grace to you and have a blessed day.

COOL with us.

Gavin Bruce Ferrier

COOL Ministries International – CMI

Today’s WORD Genesis 31:44

Ferrier International — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 04:38:00 +0000

Blessings friends, welcome to this new day, let us start with today’s WORD . Be encouraged to share this WORD with all and build “Character “.

“Now therefore, come, let us make a covenant, you and I, and let it be a witness between you and me.” Genesis 31: 44

Friends may you receive this WORD with encouragement, and let it be.

“LET IT BE”

Many a covenant has been made since this one between Laban and Jacob, (Genesis 31) and many more will still be made as time goes on. During times of trouble we come to a point, where we must draw the line and say this is enough.

The WORLD is in a debt crisis today, and until leaders of this WORLD can all make a “new covenant” and “LET IT BE” we will continue wallow in debt.

Friends it is time to let go of the past and agree (make a covenant) on the way forward. LET IT BE the beginning of a new season, and today I encourage you whatever your circumstances “LET IT BE” and make a “new covenant” so that you can move into a “new season” without looking back and questioning why.

YES, friends “LET IT BE” and GOD will guide you.

Friends be encouraged to have FAITH in the LORD our GOD and live by HIS WORD, with all your heart, mind, and spirit.

“LET IT BE”

Grace to you and have a blessed day.

COOL with us.

Gavin Bruce Ferrier

COOL Ministries International – CMI

Today’s WORD Genesis 31:44

Ferrier International — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 04:38:00 +0000

Blessings friends, welcome to this new day, let us start with today’s WORD . Be encouraged to share this WORD with all and build “Character “.

“Now therefore, come, let us make a covenant, you and I, and let it be a witness between you and me.” Genesis 31: 44

Friends may you receive this WORD with encouragement, and let it be.

“LET IT BE”

The WORLD is in a debt crisis today, and until leaders of this WORLD can all make a “new covenant” and “LET IT BE” we will continue wallow in debt.

YES, friends “LET IT BE” and GOD will guide you.

Friends be encouraged to have FAITH in the LORD our GOD and live by HIS WORD, with all your heart, mind, and spirit.

“LET IT BE”

Grace to you and have a blessed day.

COOL with us.

Gavin Bruce Ferrier

COOL Ministries International – CMI

Today’s WORD Ephesians 5: 17

Ferrier International — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 05:17:00 +0000

Blessings friends, welcome to this new day, let us start with today’s WORD . Be encouraged to share this WORD with all and build “Character “.

“Therefore do not be unwise, but understand what the will of the Lord is.” Ephesians 5:17

Friends may you receive this WORD with encouragement, and do not be unwise.

We have so many choices in life, and each day you are challenged by the choices you make. Our shops are filled with various brands each promoting why you should choose their product, and even buying a car is not easy as there are so many makes and models available each claiming to be the best for you. Sadly many bad choices are made, and we have to pay the price for our decisions, so be encouraged today to be WISE in choices you make. Friends understand you need, and decide what is best to fulfil it. Remember we are not alone, and be encouraged to first seek the WILL of GOD and make WISE choices.

YES, friends “BE WISE” and GOD will guide you.

Friends be encouraged to have FAITH in the LORD our GOD and live by HIS WORD, with all your heart, mind, and spirit.

“BE WISE”

Grace to you and have a blessed day.

COOL with us.

Gavin Bruce Ferrier

COOL Ministries International – CMI

Property prices in South Africa

Ferrier International — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 20:46:25 +0000

Interesting article by Cees Bruggemans, Chief Economist FNB

Real house and plot prices in South Africa

By Cees Bruggemans, Chief Economist FNB Cees@fnb.co.za

15 February 2012

After a period of exuberant distortion during the latter years of the recent property boom, during which existing house prices eventually reached levels that matched the average cost of newly built houses, a more normal relationship has been re-established.

Normal in the sense that as most houses age they lose value as wear and tear and changing fashions take their toll. In the US this rate of house depreciation is found to average 1% annually as houses age.

South African housing stock, meaning Western style housing usually larger than 80m2 but excluding low-income housing and houses in townships, are found to have many similarities with US housing.

Our post-WW2 housing stock today is on average estimated to be 25-30 years old, a rough rule of thumb suggesting that existing houses should on average reflect a 25%-30% discount to newly built houses.

Four years after the last property market peak, this relationship has effectively been re-established once again, according to Erwin Rode.

Relative to reported new building costs average existing houses can currently be bought at a 25% discount.

If a new house costs R100 to be build, its existing 25-year old equivalent is currently priced at R75 on average. This suggests that relative normal value has been re-established.

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Looking ahead, we note two likely developments, regarding building cost inflation and nominal house prices of existing homes, effectively a continuation for the time being of the recent past.

Replacement costs have four components, namely the builder’s profit margin (currently severely suppressed), the cost of building materials (which is driven higher by, inter alia, energy costs), the cost of labour and the cost of serviced land.

Builder’s profit margins cannot be suppressed further, given how much they have already been squeezed. Indeed, the only way is for them to increase again once normality is restored.

The energy costs going into the making of building materials (diesel, petrol, electricity) are rising in a rapid tempo, guaranteeing that building costs will keep climbing rapidly in coming years.

Labour costs can rise less fast when hard times hit the building industry, but they do keep increasing.

Adding up these three cost components and for the moment ignoring the cost of serviced land, the rise in building costs is going to remain a reality.

At the same time, quite independently, we need to look at the demand and supply of existing houses.

Here the expectation is that nominal house prices will only rise minimally for some years still, at low single-digit (0%-5%) annually.

The reason for the minimal gain in nominal house prices is a substantial supply of existing houses wanting to be sold but not being matched by enough buyers coming forward and bidding house prices higher, with existing houses being worth only as much as what a willing buyer is prepared to pay (a very old home truth).

The reason for this mismatch may have various explanations.

For instance, the number of willing buyers may have shrunk temporarily as appetite for property purchases may have suffered, given the events of recent years (due to a sense of being overindebted, perceptions of falling house values, a new sense of priorities).

Such sentiments are difficult to measure. More obvious is the apparent difficulty of willing buyers to raise finance, with the ability to do so in many instances having become constrained for the time being.

The reason for this ‘funding shortfall’ is not only the National Credit Act, but also because credit providers have adopted a new credit culture after the searing experiences worldwide and here at home since 2007.

Instead of ‘easily’ making mortgage funding available as had been the case for a generation, old disciplines have been rediscovered and reapplied, in terms of which most home mortgage borrowers are expected to maintain conservative debt loads, have stable sources of income, have sufficient income to meet all eventualities and can provide some equity as part of the property purchase while also financing all attendant costs of acquiring a new home.

This proto-type ‘new-model mortgage borrower’, today probably still the exception, will take time becoming the norm, possibly a decade when counting from 2007.

In the interim, though, many potential home buyers and borrowers still carry too much debt, have too little savings yet, may not earn enough to satisfy the credit providers and may not have stable enough income (when considering bonuses, options, piecework, commission, fee income, own business income, dividend income, rental income and other volatile types of income).

Only when this large pool of potential home buyers and borrowers has changed enough to be recognised as being ‘new model’ would we expect to see faster mortgage lending and a resurgence in housing demand that might start to match existing supply and allow nominal house prices to rise faster again.

This may be accompanied by a psychological shift in appetite as well, recuperating once again as it has always done in the past, though there are exceptions (such as Germany and Japan in the post-WW2 period).

————————————-

What are the main implications?

With building cost inflation (incorporating builder’s margins, building materials and labour) set to rise high-single digit (6%-8%) annually, with nominal prices of existing houses likely to rise only low single-digit (0%-5%) annually for the time being, possibly the next three to five years still, two things stare us in the face.

Firstly, real values of existing houses may not have stopped falling and may have further to go as building replacement cost inflation keeps outstripping nominal house price gains. Or to put it in numbers, for instance 6% inflation minus 1% nominal house price gain translates into 5% real house price decline per year.

Secondly, a further consequence is that the discount of old existing houses over newly built houses may widen further, from 25% now to something closer to 35%-45% in five years time if we allow the logic to run unchecked for the moment.

After the ‘overshoot’ of the boom years (when existing house values rose, eventually overtaking building cost inflation and finally even matching new building costs, causing the discount of old over new to dwindle to near zero) we have since then gone the other way as nominal house prices started to stagnate.

Today, we have re-established a ‘neutral’ discount of 25% of old over new. Even so, ahead we may still face an ‘undershoot’ as the discount of old over new keeps widening, with building costs rising steadily, yet nominal house prices mostly stagnating or rising only modestly as described.

In turn, that presumably would create mounting pressure for people to reconsider their ‘new build’ decision, instead opting for an existing house purchase.

Would this mean that house building activity, which seemingly has stabilised of late at recessionary lows, could resume declining anew to even lower levels?

With newly built houses only a small fraction of the supply of existing houses waiting to be sold, any such further shift away from new build to buying existing houses would not push up nominal house prices enough to undo this effect.

Unless something else gives.

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The building cost inflation as described is unlikely to slow down much, given observable cost trends. If anything, at least the energy component of these costs could surprise to the upside.

Still, could builders switch to cheaper materials, or shrink space or in other ways surprise in keeping back the rate of building cost increases? It isn’t as if all these things haven’t been tried before, but the times may become yet more pressing to become yet more inventive.

It would seem unlikely at present that regulators or credit providers are going to change their definition of the new-model borrower to which they aspire.

Even so, there may be refinements to mortgage lending criteria along the way, but the litmus test is the turnover of residential property, with transfer duty paid one indicator and credit growth by banks another.

It remains to be seen how quickly potential borrowers succeed in adjusting to the requirements of credit providers, or whether credit providers may in fact relax some of their more stringent criteria as time goes by.

Be that as it may. With the discount of old over new houses likely to still rise further for the time being, there is one more aspect to consider, namely the cost of serviced land.

For the total cost of a newly built house is builder’s profit, building materials and labour, but also the cost of the serviced plot. The latter is in a manner of speaking a very volatile shock absorber.

In euphoric times, buyers bidding up existing house prices to undreamed heights are really bidding up the ‘value’ of the underlying plot/land, for the house is simply what it is – brick and mortar replaceable at a given building cost.

At the cyclical peak, a choice serviced plot might have fetched R1.2 million. By now its market value may have already halved. But does it have further to go?

If the discount gap between old and new houses were to widen further in coming years, and potential new buyers in greater numbers opt for buying existing houses as the more rational thing to do, one can see that one way the discount can be kept ‘manageable’ is to value the serviced land/plot lower and lower.

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Eventually, the stock of potential home buyers and mortgage borrowers will have acquired far more conservative financial profiles than they used to have, mainly because their incomes have kept rising, they now earn more, they have learned how to save more (or borrow differently) and even with unstable sources of income among them can meet credit provider tougher standards.

As house demand improves and better matches existing supply, nominal house price inflation can start rising again. As it does, it can start catching up again with rising building cost inflation, eventually stabilising real house prices but also the discount of old over new houses, and then beyond that starting to shrink the discount anew.

And when this happens, the relentless downward pressure on serviced land values can finally ease, and such values can start rising again, depending on the evolving forces of supply and demand.

———————————–

It would seem when going by appearances that the full playout of the adjustment in credit culture following the shock experiences of recent years has some way to go.

In the process, nominal residential property values and building industry activity may continue to stagnate or increase only very modestly, while the value of serviced land is under severe downward pressure.

Only when the country’s pool of potential home buyers and borrowers has sufficiently adjusted to new realities, and nominal house prices start rising again along with improving demand, can the building industry expect rising activity levels, along with reviving values of serviced land.

But that could still take a few years, according to some in the industry possibly another five years.

Cees Bruggemans

Chief Economist FNB

Cees@fnb.co.za

Twitter sound bites @ ceesbruggemans

Thank you FNB.

FERRIER International keeping you informed.

Today’s WORD Mark 9:23

Ferrier International — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 04:21:00 +0000

Blessings friends, welcome to this new day, let us start with today’s WORD . Be encouraged to share this WORD with all and build “Character “.

“Jesus said to him, “If you can believe, all things are possible to him who believes.” Mark 9:23

Friends may you receive this WORD with encouragement, and DO IT without doubt. Everyone encourages success, so be successful and you will always be encouraged, to succeed each day.

“So Jesus answered and said to them, “Have faith in God. For assuredly, I say to you, whoever says to this mountain, ‘Be removed and be cast into the sea,’ and does not doubt in his heart, but believes that those things he says will be done, he will have whatever he says. Therefore I say to you, whatever things you ask when you pray, believe that you receive them, and you will have them.” Mark 11: 22-24

YES, friends “HAVE FAITH IN GOD” and do everything with belief in yourself and GOD. Friends you need to believe 100% in what you do or say, as many do or say things with doubt in mind. Do not doubt yourself, and you will be amazed at what is possible without doubt, and having belief in mind and heart.

Friends be encouraged to have FAITH in the LORD our GOD and live by HIS WORD, with all your heart, mind, and spirit.

“BELIEVE”

Grace to you and have a blessed day.

COOL with us.

Gavin Bruce Ferrier

COOL Ministries International – CMI